Michael Bosilovich (PI)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Michael.G.Bosilovich@nasa.gov

Model Analysis Intercomparison Project for the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP)

The proposed project will focus on the ability of several current global data assimilation systems, individually and in ensemble, to reproduce all of the components of the water and energy cycles (precipitation, evaporation, transports, water and energy content, and radiation). We will take advantage of many new EOS platforms to provide independent global data for cross comparison of the analysis systems. We will investigate processes related to the diurnal cycle and seasonal progression (e.g. monsoons). Previous studies with 2 or 3 analysis systems have shown that, despite the analysis of observations, the analysis output, especially output related to the models’ physical processes, can differ greatly from each other. We will compare many different center’s analyses, including NASA’s next generation systems with insitu and remotely sensed observations.  The intercomparison of so many different analyses should reveal the uncertainty of current data assimilation systems, and will contribute to the improvement of operational and retrospective analyses (eventually improving climate, seasonal and weather predictions, and the representation of climate variability in reanalysis).  The analysis data is being collected in conjunction with the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP). CEOP was implemented as an international pilot project to develop global and international water and energy cycle data. The initial focus was on the Global Energy and Water Experiment (GEWEX) Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) high-quality in-situ observations, and then CEOP rapidly expanded to include remotely sensed data and global model analysis output. The main intensive observation period comprises two annual cycles (EOP3 and EOP4, October 1, 2002 – December 31, 2004). Ten international data analysis centers have pledged to provide their model analysis output for these periods for community access. Many centers have thus recognized that this will be a superior time period to conduct model and analysis research and development owing to the richness of the CEOP data collection (including both in-situ and remotely sensed observations, and many other data analysis products). We will utilize the extensive CEOP collection in order to better understand and quantify the uncertainty of analyses. This proposed analysis intercomparison project will also take advantage of previous model intercomparison efforts developed by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). This project will complement ongoing climate model intercomparisons and accelerate progress in understanding modeled physical processes.  Relevance. Our proposed activities are directly relevant to understanding the next generation of analysis systems at NASA that are used to support NASA’s instrument teams and the next long-term retrospective-analysis. The data and diagnostics developed in this project will provide a benchmark for future developments of NASA’s models and analysis systems, as well as a resource for the international scientific community. In addition, the research will directly address scientific needs of NASA’s modeling systems. Specifically, we will investigate the ability of analysis systems to reproduce regional water and energy cycles, land atmospheric interactions and monsoon life cycles. We will also apply the Climate and Forecasting data standard across the different analyses. This is the accepted standard for the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), and we will provide feedback on its implementation to the ESMF team.

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