Lawrence Coy (PI)
U.S. Naval Research Laboratory
coy@nrl.navy.mil

Reducing Uncertainties in Middle Atmosphere Modeling

While the basic dynamics of the middle atmosphere are understood, there are still many details that are the subject of current research.  When modeling the middle atmosphere, these poorly understood details are revealed as modeling uncertainties. This proposal plans to address some of these modeling uncertainties.  These include the dependence of middle atmosphere planetary wave and mean circulation structures on the GEOS5 GCM upper boundary and resolution, mesospheric data assimilation, and data assimilation designed to reduce mixing in the subtropical stratosphere.  Reducing these uncertainties is important for understanding ozone climate change, obtaining improved middle atmosphere analyses for general climate studies, improving middle atmosphere forecasts during sub-orbital missions, and improving tropospheric weather analyses and forecasts through a more accurate specification of the middle atmosphere, necessary to most effectively use satellite observations.  We propose to use the GEOS5 GCM component to examine these uncertainties.  GEOS5 will be run with different parameters and the output examined in conjunction with observations from NASA satellites, such as Aura, TIMED, and UARS, to address and quantify these uncertainties.  One goal is to develop a set of GEOS5 GCM middle atmosphere configurations that would be useful to a wide variety of researchers and applications.  For example: a high top version (~100 km) for mesospheric data assimilation and forecasting, a high horizontal resolution version for weather forecasting, a version optimized for climate runs, etc.  A second goal is to improve understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics through GEOS5 GCM experiments coupled with satellite observations.  This proposal is for the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office category.

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