James Kinter (PI)
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
kinter@cola.iges.org

Demonstrating the Value of NASA Research Satellite Data, Data Assimilation Products and Models for Improving Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Climate

We propose to demonstrate the value of research satellite data, model-based data assimilation products and climate models for improving seasonal predictions of the tropical climate. The principal tool to be used in this study will be the GEOS5 AGCM coupled to the Poseidon OGCM. Predictions made by GMAO using the GEOS5 system will be extensively evaluated in comparison with predictions made with the NOAA/NCEP CFS and the NCAR CCSM, as well as the COLA coupled model. The GEOS5-based predictions will also be used in conjunction with the other models’ predictions to develop more robust estimates of the seasonal PDF. All models are ESMF-compliant or are expected to be within the period of performance. NASA satellite data will be used in several novel ways to improve seasonal predictions. First, satellite-based surface winds will be used to more fully characterize the atmospheric noise that contributes to the spread of forecasts within an ensemble. Second, high-resolution satellite-based coastal winds and surface temperatures will be used to better characterize the ocean initial state, diagnose the impact on coupled model predictions, and develop better coupled-model initialization strategies. Third, empirical corrections, based on satellite data (e.g. ISCCP, AIRS and MISRE), will be applied to the GEOS5 system to improve seasonal predictions. Fourth, precipitation analyses based on TRMM satellite data will be used along with in situ analyses and a regional climate model to diagnose the GEOS5 simulation and prediction of the Asian monsoon and to better characterize intraseasonal variability, whose poor simulation degrades seasonal monsoon forecasts.

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