Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (MAP) Program

Recent Highlights

Below are titles of and links to concise summaries of work on specific MAP-funded scientific investigations.


•  Prospect of increased disruption to the QBO in a changing climate

•  The 2019 Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex weakening and its impacts

•  Machine Learning the Warm Rain Process

•  A Synthetic Experiment to Investigate the Potential of Assimilating LAI Through Direct Insertion in a Land Surface Model

•  The ECCO-Darwin Data-assimilative Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Model

•  Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization

•  Isolating the Physical Drivers of the Fall 2019 Southeast U.S. Flash Drought: Links to an Extreme IOD

•  Developing A Satellite-Based Convective Mass Flux Dataset and Evaluating Cumulus Parameterization in GISS E-3

•  Evaluating Precipitation Feature Characteristics in the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework

•  Anomalous Circulation in July 2019 Resulting in Mass Loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet

•  Rare Atmospheric River Caused Record Floods across the Middle East

•  The Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into why January is more difficult to predict than February

•  Impact of COVID-19 restrictions on atmospheric concentrations of O3 and NO2 across the globe

•  Real-time simulation of atmospheric composition using the NASA GEOS composition forecast system GEOS-CF

•  Predictability and Prediction of Climate from Days to Decades

•  Quantifying the occurrence of record hot years through normalized warming trends


•  Predictability and Prediction of Climate from Days to Decades

•  Why Are the Drylands Getting Drier? The Perspective Provided by GRACE and Noah-MP with Plant Hydraulics

•  An assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

•  The Impact of Soil and Surface Moisture on Tropical Cyclone Reintensification over Land, part 2

•  The Impact of Soil and Surface Moisture on Tropical Cyclone Reintensification over Land, part 1

•  Identifying the Sources and Global Impacts of Errors in Climate Models

•  Soil Moisture Impacts on Subseasonal Forecast Skill and Uncertainty

•  Subseasonal prediction of U.S. summer flash droughts

•  Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) of Turbulence and Fog

•  Quantifying Stratospheric Water Vapor Feedback in GEOSCCM

•  The Influence of LAI Assimilation on Water Variables in a Land Surface Model

•  Speeding up atmospheric chemistry in Earth System Models


•  Size of blocking events: Scaling law & future changes

•  New Methodology to evaluate EDMF forced by MERRA Re-Analysis

•  initMIP-Antarctica: an initialization experiment of ISMIP6

•  Why Do Large-Scale Land Surface Models Produce a Low Ratio of Transpiration to Evapotranspiration (T/ET)?

•  The Sensitivity of Land–Atmosphere Coupling to Modern Agriculture in the Northern Midlatitudes

•  An Integrated, Observation-Driven Hydrological Modeling System Using LIS and WRF-Hydro Enabled by ESMF

•  Simulating Greenland Surface Mass Balance in the NASA GISS ModelE2 GCM

•  Development of high-performance GEOS-Chem (GCHP): Massively parallel off-line capability for global chemical transport modeling enabled by ESMF/MAPL in partnership with GMAO

•  Extreme Weather for Climate Models

•  Effect of improvements in GCM boundary layer and cloud physics

•  Changes in the MJO under Greenhouse Gas-Induced Warming in CMIP5 Models

•  Attribution of the 2017 High Plains Drought

•  Tendency Bias Correction in Coupled and Uncoupled Global Climate Models with a Focus on Impacts over North America

•  Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature


•  The importance of vertical resolution in the free troposphere for modeling intercontinental plumes

•  Error cascade in off-line modeling of atmospheric transport

•  Global simulation of tropospheric chemistry at 12.5 km resolution with the NASA GEOS-5 model including GEOS-Chem chemistry

•  Does soil moisture affect warm season precipitation?

•  Understanding Large-Scale Tropospheric Transport Differences in Chemistry Climate Models

•  Evaluation of RapidScat Ocean Vector Winds for Data Assimilation and Reanalysis

•  Reexamining the Nonlinear Moisture-Precipitation Relationship over the Tropical Oceans

•  A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

•  Understanding the Evolution of MJO Precipitation Structures Using Cloud Models with Radar Validation

•  Impact of snowpack initialization on seasonal forecasts

•  Relationships Between Giant Sea Salt Particles and Clouds

•  Evaluation of Greenland near surface air temperature datasets

•  Changes in the Structure and Propagation of the MJO with Increasing CO2

•  Effect of Extratropical-Tropical Variability On Air Quality Over the Western United States

•  Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

•  Error cascade in off-line modeling of atmospheric transport

•  Extratropical Cyclones Sensitivity to Environmental Change

•  Diagnosis and Validation of Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks in Two Global Models


•  The impact of mesoscale convective systems on global precipitation: A modeling study

•  Simulating US Summer Rainfall in NU-WRF: Sensitivity to cumulus parameterizations

•  Investigation of global nitrate from the AeroCom Phase III experiment

•  Tropical Cloud and Precipitation Regimes and Ver1cal Structures as Seen from 15,896 TRMM and CloudSat/CALIPSO Match-up Cases

•  GMI Chemical Mechanism and its Applications in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model

•  An evaluation of gravity waves and gravity wave sources in the Southern Hemisphere in a 7 km global climate simulation

•  Global trends in ocean phytoplankton: a new assessment using revised ocean color data

•  Simulating PACE Global Ocean Radiances

•  Seasonal ENSO reforecast for 57 years (1958-2014)

•  Internal Atmospheric Noise Characteristics in 20th Century Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Simulations

•  Predictability and Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon by CFSv2: Implications of the Initial Shock Effect

•  Revisiting the observed correlation between weekly averaged Indian monsoon precipitation and Arabian Sea aerosol optical depth

•  GMI-MERRA2 Chemistry Transport Model Simulation Explains Variations in Lower Stratospheric Circulation found in Ground-based and Satellite Data Records

•  Chlorine and Ozone Depletion are Declining Inside the Antarctic Ozone Hole – MLS Observations and the GMI Chemistry Transport Model Agree

•  Forecasting Ocean Chlorophyll in the Equatorial Pacific

•  Discovery of solitary waves of ice loss

•  Ice-Ocean Modeling of Thwaites Glacier

•  Should coastal planners worry about where the ice is melting?

•  An Improved Convective Ice Parameterization for the NASA GISS Global Climate Model and Impacts on Cloud Ice Simulation

•  CMIP5 models’ shortwave cloud radiative response and climate sensitivity linked to the climatological Hadley cell extent

•  Searching for aerosol effects on clouds using MODIS regimes

•  A radiative transfer module for calculating photolysis rates and solar heating in climate models: Solar-J v7.5


•  The GMI-MERRA Chemistry Transport Model Quantifies the Roles of Dynamics and Chemistry in Arctic Spring Ozone

•  Utility of GRACE in assessing model estimates of Greenland mass change

•  Midlatitude cloud shifts, their primary link to the Hadley cell, and their diverse radiative effects

•  Systematic Biases In The Vertical Structure Of Clouds In Climate Models

•  An Approach to Computing Discrete Adjoints for MPI-Parallelized Models Applied to the Ice Sheet System Model 4.11

•  Assessment of the Vertical Structure of Radiation in Climate Models

•  Evaluation of The Cloud Phase Transition in Climate Models


•  Towards high-resolution global projection of tropical cyclones in the GISS model

•  Very high resolution simulation of tropospheric chemistry enabled by the GEOS-Chem module in the GEOS DAS

•  GEOS-Chem as chemical module for Earth System Models

•  Model intercomparison leads to GISS GCM improvement

•  Quantifying the Diurnal Cycle in Stratospheric Ozone in Observations and GEOSCCM


•  HEMCO: an ESMF-compliant emission module for Earth System Models

•  Use of ISS-SMILES ice cloud diurnal cycle measurements for climate model evaluations

•  Objectively Identifying the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone through an Analysis of CMIP5 and GPCP/TRMM data

•  What Improvements are found in GISS Post-CMIP5 Compared to CERES-MODIS Cloud and Radiation